James Rupert writes: Thais wonder how they will get through this crisis if they should lose the guiding hand of their aging king
The Thai junta is caught between a need to get tough on deposed Prime Minister Thaksin and his still-powerful loyalists, and to show a democratic, tolerant face to Thais who no longer suffer army rule as passively as in generations past. While Thailand has seen 18 coups and 16 constitutions since it abandoned absolute monarchy in 1932, this crisis is especially troubling because Thais cannot count for long on the stabilizing presence of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who has moderated political conflict here over a 60-year reign.
Thailand's all-powerful kings were displaced by nearly all-powerful generals who, after 1932, ruled directly or indirectly for 50 out of 56 years. Taking the throne in 1946, Bhumibol patiently rebuilt the monarchy's weakened authority with a personal crusade to develop Thailand's economy. He made countless visits to villages and towns, founding more than 3,000 projects - schools, fish farms, water supply systems, agricultural research stations and others. As education spread, Thais increasingly resisted army rule. Mass demonstrations from the 1970s to the '90s forced the military to limit or surrender its governing powers, and Bhumibol, perhaps reticently, became a political arbiter of last resort.
Deposed Prime Minister Thaksin's resistance to the king, and a perception that he was trying to tighten his personal grip on the army and build personal influence with the crown prince, led generals to overthrow him, said Thai and Western analysts. King Bhumibol, the world's longest-ruling monarch, is frail at age 79. His son, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, is widely seen (although never publicly described) as a somewhat thuggish playboy who will be unable to play his father's stabilizing role. "Discussing the politics of the royal household is taboo [in Thailand], so you will please not quote me," said a Thai intellectual.
The problem now, voiced here only in whispers, is that the thrice-married crown prince is seen as an arrogant womanizer prone to eruptions of bad temper. Paul Handley, an American journalist and biographer of Bhumibol, wrote that army generals "did not want Thaksin in a position to exert influence" on the succession to Vajiralongkorn. After the coup, junta officers were shown on TV, prostrating themselves before the king, who assented to their takeover. They quickly moved army officers seen as Thaksin loyalists out of sensitive posts and named a civilian interim cabinet of retired technocrats to run the government for a year, oversee the writing of a new constitution and hold elections.
Thaksin is still popular in the villages, and his loyalists in the civil service, police and military are withholding cooperation with the government in hopes he can return to power, Kavi and other analysts said. Interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has implied that Thaksin loyalists are the main suspects in the New Year's Eve bombings, although Thaksin has denied any role. The bombings put pressure on the government to get tough. On Jan. 10, it canceled Thaksin's diplomatic passport and ordered Thai media not to report his statements. While Bangkok liberals welcome moves to bring Thaksin to trial and uproot his influence, they agonize over whether this army-led government can produce a constitution with the civil liberties of the last one. And like all Thais, they worry about how they will get through this crisis if they should lose the guiding hand of their aging king.
Journalist James Rupert, head of Newsday's international bureau in Islamabad, Pakistan began his career abroad as a Peace Corps volunteer, teaching mechanics and welding in Morocco. Read more stories by James Rupert.
Top Photo: Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej Photo: Sakchai Lalit
Bottom Photo: HRH Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn Photo: Pornchai Kittiwongsakul